Let the jockeying begin for CD-4, 2010

Talking with a good friend the other day who understands Eastern/North Colorado politics as well as anyone else, there’s already a feeling sweeping the plains that U.S. Representative Betsy Markey is already vulnerable, even before she’s been sworn in.  Yes, this feeling exists even though Markey won in double-digit fashion.  But let’s also look at Markey’s own campaign.  Check out this TV ad where Markey appears just a little robotic in her closing remarks.

Consider the theory that Musgrave did herself in with an amazingly negative campaign, and the complimentary theory that all Markey had to do was get out of the way.  Check the following results:

In Larimer County, McCain got 68,932 votes, Musgrave got 58,494.  So you can’t just blame a “democratic” tide.  Markey peeled away A LOT of Republicans.  In Larimer County, Markey received roughly 6-thousand more votes that OBAMA!

Weld County:  McCain pulls in almost 56-thousand votes, and beats Obama in that county.  Musgrave pulls in about 39-thousand.  That’s hard-core abandonment not by your party’s elite, but by your everyday party voters.

To wit:  in two of the most populous counties in CD-4, Republicans who were Republican enough to vote for McCain abandoned Musgrave like she had the plague and bad breath all at the same time.

SO…CD-4 might still be considered Republican country, and already, CompleteColorado.com is hearing there are four HIGHLY qualified candidates that might like to set their sights on picking off Markey in 2010.

Mark Hillman, former treasurer, and someone who, unlike the newly-minted Senator Udall, does not need to drop $500 at Eddie Bauer to convince people he was country when country wasn’t cool.

Weld County DA Ken Buck, popular for his strong work on illegal immigration.

Cory Gardner, another GOP rising star, at least in statewide circles.

And Greg Brophy, District 1 state Senator.

Those are four, qualified CD-4 heavy hitters for the GOP.

How long ’til “Camelot” references?

Start the office pool….how long before the MSM starts making non-direct, or hell, even direct references to Obama’s White House and the “Camelot” White House of Kennedy?

Thus far, I’ve found only this item using a Google News search.  But the reference seems to be more to RFK Jr., and not the Obamas, so I’m throwing this one out.  But I’ll wager at least ONE major paper will make the reference before the week is out.

Election analysis

President:  We hope Obama runs his White House as efficiently as he ran his campaign.  Truly, he left no stone unturned, and his army of volunteers etc. was impressive and overwhelming.  Still, we can’t help but feel the irony that the economy was what pushed him to victory, and yet we here at CompleteColorado.com are among those who believe that the underlying economic problem was Democrat created.  Nevertheless, to a degree, Republicans (of which this author is among) had this coming.

Colorado’s Congressional Delegation:  Few surprises here except for Markey upsetting Musgrave, and, like above, Republicans, especially Musgrave had this coming.  I was shocked to see this TV ad.

Musgrave’s campaign had been extremely nasty.  Markey, like other dems, was helped by the rising tide that lifted all boats.

The rising tide also helped Udall, but Schaffer’s campaign never seemed to get traction.  In truth, it seemed as though Udall was running as an incumbent.  During the summer, the NIST plutonium spill scandal broke loose, and Udall siezed the moment to look, well, Senatorial.

BALLOT INITIATIVES:  Voters were in a “no” state-of-mind, which lends credibility to those Republicans/Conservatives/Libertarians who claim that this election was anti-Republican, and not necessarily a mandate for the Democrat’s agenda.

As of this publishing, Amendment 46 is still undecided, but would need a swell of votes to persevere.  However, consider the opening lines to Obama’s acceptance speech last night…

If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible, who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time, who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer.

Again, we’d find it slightly sad and somewhat ironic that on the same night the first black President of the United States can make a statement like this, it appears as though the people of Colorado have decided to continue on with Government-mandated preferences.

Perhaps the strangest and least-predicted result of the night was the loss of Amendments 58 and 59.  With such a dramatic turnout, how did Ritter and Romanoff lose these two questions?  Perhaps Coloradoans aren’t as crazy to “go green” as our Governor is, and also are more committed to the preservation of TABOR than Romanoff surmised.   Also, how were the polls so wrong? For weeks leading up to the election, 58 was polling well, and 59 had one of the broadest coalitions possible!  It just goes to prove the old maxim in ballot politics that you need to be polling 70% in your favor because the “undecided” vote will break hard for “no.”  The defeat of these two amendments points to the liklihood of a gridlocked general assembly and a floundering Governor coming this January.

Boulder nudity update…

See previous post for the basics on how to be naked in Boulder.

But now it appears that just as I was publishing that post, the Daily Camera was also coming out with an update on the “naked pumpkin run,” saying that for the 12 people ticketed, they may have to register as sex offenders!

If I’m one of these 12 (and trust me, I’m not like Stewie when it comes to a package, so I wouldn’t dare) then I’ve got to be a little pissed that dozens did a naked bike ride down the Pearl Street Mall this past summer, and the Boulder Police Department didn’t even blink an eye.

An election diversion

Just something to take your mind off of electoral politics for a minute…

Part of the great thing about working news in Colorado is, you’ve always got Boulder.

And lately, Boulder’s been a lot of fun, maybe not if you’re a Buff fan, but certainly if you’re a fan of being in the buff!

We love to take the economic view of things here at CompleteColorado.com.  And as such, we recognize that the constraints of scarcity find their ways into most things in life, even law enforcement.  You simply can’t police and prosecute everything on the books, so priorities must be established.

So the real fun started back in the summer when some of the citizens of Boulder decided to bike naked….to protest high oil prices, or high oil consumption.  Who knows with some of these Boulderites?  “Less gas, more ass,” was the rally cry.  BUT! No tickets for public nudity were written.

Then, just days after the fun biking event, Gandolf the Wizard decided to go for a nude stroll along Folsom Street.  And of course, the cops wrote him a ticket.

All of which resulted in a mild uproar when some of the citizens complained about the Boulder Police department occasionally ticketing nudity, and sometimes appearing to give it the green light.

Then comes Halloween: an excuse for most of us to act out some form of an alter-ego, but for some Boulderites, it’s an excuse to put a pumkin on your head and run naked.  Boulder Police Chief Mark Beckner said, “This was a good opportunity to enforce the law.”  ORLY?

Again, going back to the idea of scarcity, we realize you can’t arrest everyone, you can’t prosecute every offense of the law (thank goodness).  But the thing about selective prosecution or enforcement is, you can select your catagories, but it becomes much more difficult when you decide to be selective within your catagories.  And that’s the problem the BPD is having right now.

Personally though, I hope the problem continues.  It’s always a fun read.

The first of many articles yet to come…

The American Spectator says you can stick a fork in Schaffer, something most of Colorado probably knew by the ides of October.  But the title of this article is, “Rocky Mountain Blues.”

Get used to it.  Colorado is going to send a delegation to D.C. that is at a minimum, 6 Dems to 3 Republicans.  And if Musgrave doesn’t hang on, make it 7 to 2.  Even though Colorado is still split almost evenly in thirds, expect to see a lot of stories talking about how “blue” Colorado has become, regardless of where the electoral college votes end up going.

Everyone knew what was at stake, but now I’m starting to hum the old Police tune, “Canary in a coal mine.“

It’s that time!

Of course, it’s election season, but don’t forget, it appears that TV Sweeps have started as well.  I just heard an ad on KOA, but the ad was for 9News.  The dangerous sounding voice explained that 9News had interviewed a child sex predator, he had shared all of his “secrets,” and you can hear them TONIGHT, only on 9News.

Political ads are the worst, no doubt.  Sweeps ads run a very close second.

The Rocky…managing the news flow…

If all newsrooms have one thing in common, it’s this:  worrying about whether the next day will be a “slow” or “fast” news day, and if it’s slow, what will you print or air?

Well, The Rocky Mountain News and CBS 4 have definitely come up with a solution to help manage the news cycle.

Notice a poll-results story published on Saturday, October 24, showing Obama leading McCain among Colorado voters.  Monday, October 27th, another poll story about Amendment 58 being too close to call.  Today, yet another poll story, Tuesday the 28th, about Amendment 48 being crushed by a 40+ point margin.

Clearly, the Rocky and CBS4 aren’t conducting a new poll each and every day.  They conducted one poll, and had all of these results in their pocket, probably by Friday the 24th.

But the way they are dribbling these results out like water torture raises at least a couple of ethical questions.  Are your poll results on the 24th still “valid” if you publish those results one week later?  And how do you decide the order of what is published when, and does the newsroom debate whether or not the timing of an INDIVIDUAL RESULT story has the ability to affect the election?

Let’s not kid ourselves…

Barak Obama is set to become the next President of the United States.  Ever since the stock market meltdown and subsequent bailout, we haven’t seen too many (if any, but it’s getting hard to remember!) polls in Colorado showing McCain leading here in Colorado.

AND YET…

There has been a strange string of stories that taken together could add up to some interesting results on election day.

EXAMPLE ONE: KMGH Channel 7 in Denver reports that early mail-in ballots show Republicans with a slight edge in returns.

EXAMPLE TWO: KUSA Channel 9 in Denver reporting that an analysis of early mail-in ballots showed an almost dead-heat between the two parties.

So how does that jive with a Rocky Mountain News/CBS 4 poll that shows Obama with a double-digit lead here in Colorado?  Mass defections amongst Republicans who will cast their Presidential vote for Obama?  Perhaps.  And also keep in mind, the GOP has thrown in the towel on Schaffer, and as of this writing, Musgrave is hanging on by the fingernails.

STILL, looking at the two turnout EXAMPLE stories we’ve just presented versus what the polls predict, what can we expect next Tuesday?

I’d say expect to see the most Democrats sent to D.C. by Colorado in some while, but the heavy Republican turnout could lead to more interesting amendment results.  You might find some Republicans who were bitter about the Bush Presidency and the skyrocketing number of earmarks under a Republican congress who were also swayed by Obama’s efficient campaign and lofty rhetoric.  But when it comes down to amendment questions, the issue of personality disappears, and principle has a greater chance to persevere.

With Big Labor spending millions against Amendments 47, 49 and 54, it would be a miracle if any of them passed.  And yet, with the heavy early Republican turnout presented above, it wouldn’t surprise us here at CompleteColorado.com if any one, perhaps two of those amendments pass.  Additionally, from our point of view, the “No on 58” folks have run a smart campaign with a smart use of their money.  Governor Ritter could be staring down the face of a couple of rebukes on election night.  He hasn’t put too much of his political capitol at stake, but let there be no doubt, if any two among 47,49 and 54 should pass, and 58 should fail, the the people of Colorado will have spoken loudly about the leadership from their Governor.